Methods
Why should I believe any of this?Every number on this site traces back to this page: what it means, where it comes from, how often it updates, and how often our calls have been right — including the weeks we were wrong.
The Split, With Evidence
One question decides how much to trust a stat: does this week predict next week? Below, each metric's week-to-week correlation in this season's own data. Filled dots stick. Hollow ones wash out.
This is why rankings here run on roles. A touchdown tells you what happened; a snap share tells you what happens next.
Track Record
A start call is right when the player beats his position's weekly starter median (top-12 QB/TE, top-24 RB, top-30 WR); a sit call is right when he stays under it. Published every week, including the bad ones.
Every Metric, Defined
Data & Update Schedule
Known Gaps & Proxies
- Route participation isn't here. It's the best receiver-usage stat, and it isn't freely available. Snap share + target share stand in. Wherever that proxy does the work, the site says so instead of implying precision it doesn't have.
- Air yards go missing. A handful of play-by-play rows carry impossible air-yards values and are dropped, and in the rare game where a team throws under 100 air yards the share is not a meaningful ratio. In both cases the air-yards share and WOPR are left unreported and the page shows a dash — never an invented number.
- Weather is only known after kickoff. Weeks 1–10 carry the wind actually recorded at the game. Week 11 has not been played, so it carries no wind at all — a dash, not a zero. Domes and closed roofs never report wind.
- Practice reports are signals, not verdicts. The league posts one participation status per player per week, not a Wed–Thu–Fri log, so a group here is a designation and that status together. Questionable splits three ways on it — the rates are on the injury board.
- Injured reserve is not here. The league feed this site reads carries weekly game designations only — Out, Doubtful, Questionable — and no IR status, so there is no IR board rather than a guessed one.
- Pattern rates count a snap, not a helmet. They are measured on this season's own weeks 1–10, across every position on the injury report, and a player who dressed but never took a snap counts as not having played — which is the only sense in which it matters to a lineup.
What This Site Doesn't Do
- No betting advice. Totals and spreads appear only as inputs to pace and game-script expectations.
- No single-number projections. A projection is a range; pretending otherwise is false precision.
- No hiding misses. The call record stays up, bad weeks included.
- No league sync, no logins, no paywalls. Free data in, free site out.
- No "sources say." Everything here is computed from public play-by-play; nothing is sourced from rumor.